DATA SNAPSHOT - United States Markets

Key drivers

• 10Y Treasury: 5.05%, highest since 2007.
• 2Y Treasury: 4.86%, highest since June 2024.
• Fed: Markets priced roughly 73% probability of another 25-bp October hike, up from ~53%.
• US Composite PMI: 58.4 vs 56.0 in August — strongest since July 2021, reinforcing the “higher-for-longer” rate narrative.
• Oil: WTI $91.87 (+1.49%); Brent $101.62 (+2.39%), as Middle-East diplomatic progress weakened. 
• Dollar Index (DXY): 101.09, +0.54%, near a two-month high. The stronger dollar reflects renewed expectations of Fed tightening. 

Market signal: This looks less like a broad economic-growth shock and more like a valuation/rate reset — strong US activity → higher inflation/rate expectations → Treasury yields ↑ → dollar ↑ → pressure on equities, particularly rate-sensitive/expensive segments.